According to a January, 2007 report from Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council, it is economically possible to cut global CO2 emissions by close to 50% by 2050. The report, Energy [r]evolution, compares two scenarios for the future of global energy consumption and emissions. The first scenario is a business as usual case extrapolated from the 2004 World Energy Outlook (see figures below). The second scenario is one which follows the principles of the energy [r]evolution. There are five key principles to the [r]evolution:
- implement renewable solutions, especially through decentralized energy systems
- respect the natural limits of the environment
- phase out dirty, unsustainable energy sources
- create greater equity in the use of resources
- decouple economic growth from the consumption of fossil fuels.
Decentralized energy systems, where power and heat are produced close to the point of final use, avoid the current waste of energy during conversion and distribution. They will be central to the energy [r]evolution – as will the need to provide electricity to the two billion people around the world to whom access is presently denied.
(it is unclear why they chose the 2004 WEO rather than the 2005 or 2006 reports, but they do mention that the 2006 WEO assumes a slightly higher GDP and concludes a global energy consumption 4% than the 2004 case. The corresponding raise in GDP for the [r]evolution leads to a 0.2% increase in energy consumption.)
The time is right, within the next decade, to make substantial structural changes in the energy and power sector. Many power plants in industrialized countries, such as the USA, Japan and the European Union, are nearing retirement; more than half of all operating power plants are over 20 years old. At the same time developing countries, such as China, India and Brazil, are looking to satisfy the growing energy demand created by their expanding economies. Within the next ten years, the power sector will decide how this new demand will be met, either by fossil and nuclear fuels or by the efficient use of renewable energy. The energy [r]evolution scenario is based on a new political framework in favour of renewable energy and cogeneration combined with energy efficiency. To make this happen, both renewable energy and cogeneration – on a large scale and through decentralized, smaller units – have to grow faster than overall global energy demand. Both approaches must replace old generation and deliver the additional energy required in the developing world.
As stated, the climate change imperative demands nothing short of an energy revolution. At the core of this revolution will be a change in the way that energy is produced, distributed and consumed.
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