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How’s this for an “oh sh*t” moment:
Arctic Ocean sea ice is melting faster than even the most advanced climate change models predict, a new study concludes.
The work, published today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, used the models to retroactively predict sea-ice decline from 1953 to 2006.
Scientists then compared the results to what has actually been recorded by Earth-based and satellite observations during that time frame.
The team found that, on average, 18 climate models used in a 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) underestimated the extent of sea-ice decline by a factor of three.
“We’re about 30 years ahead of what the models show,” said Julienne Stroeve, lead author of the study and a researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado in Boulder.
[NationalGeographic]